Tuesday, July 5, 2016

Impending Pacific Fleet Exercise

Akula I nuclear-powered submarine (possibly "Kuzbass") near La Perouse Strait -- June 20, 2016
(credit: Japanese Ministry of Defense)
All signs are pointing to a large-scale Russian Navy exercise taking place in the Sakhalin Island, southern Sea of Okhotsk, and Kuril Islands this week. At least four submarines, sixteen warships, and two auxiliaries were noted by Japanese P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft passing through the La Perouse and Tsushima Straits in mid-June, as described below:

Jun 15 Slava cruiser "Varyag" noted heading east through La Perouse Strait
Jun 17 Kilo submarine noted heading east through La Perouse Strait
Jun 18 Kilo submarine noted heading east through La Perouse Strait
Jun 19 Grisha frigate "Kholmsk" | Tarantul III patrol combatants "R-18" + "R-298" noted heading east through La Perouse Strait
Jun 20 Akula I nuclear submarine (possibly "Kuzbass") | Udaloy destroyer "Admiral Tributs" | Sovremennyy destroyer "Bystryy" |  Tarantul III patrol combatants "R-14" + "R-29" | Nanuchka III patrol combatants "Iney" + "Moroz" + "Razliv" | Grisha frigate "Koreyets" | Chilikin replenishment oiler "Boris Butoma" noted heading east through La Perouse Strait
Jun 21 Kilo submarine noted heading east through La Perouse Strait
Udaloy destroyer "Admiral Panteleyev" | Alligator landing ship "Nikolay Vilkov" | Ropucha landing ships "Admiral Nevelskoy" + "Peresvet" | ocean-going tug "Aleksandr Piskunov" noted heading south through Tsushima Strait

While there has been no official announcement of an exercise, social media sources indicate that the ships began departing the Vladivostok area on June 14 for an exercise. According to those sources, the ships will not return to port until mid-July.

"Varyag" was not in Vladivostok when the ships began departing. It was returning from a Mediterranean Sea deployment that began in November of last year. Its last port call was Singapore in early June.

Also missing from the mix is a task group consisting of Udaloy destroyer "Admiral Vinogradov", Dubna oiler "Irkut", and Baklazhan rescue tug "Fotiy Krylov"; they were last noted visiting Myanmar in mid-May. Although the task group's current whereabouts are unknown, social media sources indicate "Admiral Vinogradov" will not return to Vladivostok until early August, which provides plenty of time to participate in this event.

Area closures (red), flight bans (yellow), and flight route closures (green) for missile activity -- July 5-9

Over the past week, Russia announced a number of area closures, flight bans, and flight route closures:

NAVAREA XIII 44/16
NORTH PACIFIC
CHART RUS 61031
1. MISSILE EXERCISES 05 TO 07 JUL 0000 TO 0300 AND 0400 TO 0800 IN AREA BOUNDED BY 44-13-30N 148-48-00E 44-45-00N 148-15-00E 45-26-00N 149-18-00E 45-40-00N
149-58-00E 45-53-00N 150-06-00E 45-56-00N 150-11-00E 46-59-00N 152-35-00E 45-28-00N 153-41-00E 44-08-00N 153-23-00E
2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 070900 JUL 16
NAVAREA XIII 46/16
SEA OF OKHOTSK
CHART RUS 61018
1. MISSILE EXERCISES 072300 TO 080300 UTC JUL 08 JUL 0500 TO 0800 UTC 082300 TO 090300 UTC JUL 09 JUL 0500 TO 0800 UTC IN AREA BOUNDED BY 44-28-00N 145-16-00E 46-00-00N 145-16-00E 46-00-00N 147-24-00E 45-08-00N 147-24-00E 44-49-00N 147-09-36E COASTLINE 44-44-06N 147-07-54E 44-27-00N 146-34-00E COASTLINE 44-28-00N 146-04-30E
2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 090900 UTC JUL 16
P6342/16 - FLW ATS RTE SEGMENTS CLSD: B917 OSGEN - NELER, B919 ORSUK - LAVNI, B932 NETRI - ODERI,mG239 IKADA - SARET, G583 LATAK - BISIV, G810 SARET - ALODI. SFC - UNL, 07 2300-08 0300, 08 0500-0800, 08 2300-09 0300, 09 0500-0800, 07 JUL 23:00 2016 UNTIL 09 JUL 08:00 2016.
P6343/16 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD: 460000N 1451600E-460000N 1472400E-450800N 1472400E-444900N 1470930E-444600N 1470748E-442700N 1463600E-442800N 1460500E-442800N 1454300E-443900N 1451600E-460000N 1451600E. SFC - UNL, 07 2300-08 0300, 08 0500-0800, 08 2300-09 0300, 09 0500-0800, 07 JUL 23:00 2016 UNTIL 09 JUL 08:00 2016.
P6365/16 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD: 465900N 1523500E-464400N 1524500E-441500N 1484600E-444500N 1481500E-452600N 1491800E-454000N 1495800E-455300N 1500600E-455600N 1501100E-465900N 1523500E. SFC - UNL, 07 JUL 00:00 2016 UNTIL 07 JUL 08:00 2016.
P6367/16 - TEMPO DANGER AREA ACT WI COORD: 465900N 1523500E-464400N 1524500E-441500N 1484600E-444500N 1481500E-452600N 1491800E-454000N 1495800E-455300N 1500600E-455600N 1501100E-465900N 1523500E. SFC - UNL, 0000-0300 0400-0800, 08 JUL 00:00 2016 UNTIL 08 JUL 08:00 2016.
Russian IL-38 May maritime patrol aircraft flights east of Japan -- June 27-28, 2016

Probably related to the movement of ships, on June 27-28, two Russian IL-38 May maritime patrol aircraft were noted operating east of Hokkaido and northern Honshu.